NBA Gauntlet » Team Analysis

Cavs 2008-09 Preview: Is Mo Williams an Upgrade?

Harris Beringer — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 19:36:18 +0000

The Cleveland Cavaliers made a bold push to improve the team and retain LeBron James in the future. In a three team deal with Oklahoma City and Milwaukee, the Cavs brought in Mo Williams and sent out Damon Jones and Joe Smith.

But is Mo Williams, who turns 26 this season, an actual upgrade or a misguided attempt to make LeBron happy?

Though he is not an excellent facilitator or defender, Mo Williams has become an efficient scorer, and has improved each year. He also has been good on the boards.

Mo Williams, a scoring point guard, adds about 2.5 wins above average to a team in 2400 minutes, while Damon Jones is about 2.5 wins below average in just 1300 minutes.

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The remaining 1100 minutes that Mo Williams will take can come from any other less talented player, such as Devin Brown, who would be about two wins below average in that amount of time.

The loss of Joe Smith, an above average power forward, would create minutes for rookie J.J. Hickson, who should figure to be have a fairly successful rookie season, about one win below average.

Add everything together and you see that the team should win about six more games. The young players like Daniel Gibson should improve a bit and Sasha Pavlovic should recover from a dreadful season.

However, the team must hope that Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas don’t age five years overnight. LeBron James will also need to find a way to stay fresh after a long off-season playing for team U.S.A.

2008-2009 Cavaliers Prediction: 51 Wins.

Knicks 2008-09 Preview: Donnie Walsh Can Save New York Basketball

Harris Beringer — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:52:12 +0000

Updated 9/4/08

This year, I have a few more fearless projections and suggestions—take that, Clyde Frazier—for fans and management, respectively.

Let’s start with the projections. Last year, my player projections were pretty accurate.

I was tough on all of the Knicks who ended up being terrible (see Richardson, Q.)—but did not anticipate how the coaching and injuries could help the team lose even more games than the 2006-2007 season.

This year, let’s start off with the predicted win total—34. Now, how can the Knicks achieve that record?

Last year was filled with an unprecedented level of drama, with a coach spending the entire year on the hot seat, a sexual harassment scandal, an unhappy “star” point guard who mysteriously left the team to have surgery, trade rumors, and various in-team scuffles.

The Knicks used 31 different lineups last season, an unheard of count, unless you’re the 2005-2006 Knicks who used 42 different lineups.

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This year, stability alone should bring the team back to its play of two years ago. Unfortunately, much of the Eastern Conference has improved.

Elton Brand brings a low-post presence to Philly. Toronto has a new center, and Indiana found a new point guard. Atlanta can look forward to improvement by the young guys, but losing Childress hurts more than people think. Even Charlotte might improve.

The Knicks, though, are unlikely to notice much improvement from their own players. Not a single Knick has improved while in the league, which might be a sign that the coaching staff was terrible. This year, Mike D’Antoni’s high-octane offensive approach should increase scoring and raise morale. If that translates to more wins, then great.

Now, can the Knicks win more than 34 games? That will take a real effort to trade the trash and find new roles for others.

Jerome James and Malik Rose have no good reason to take up a spot on the bench. Jerome is on par with Carl Pavano, in terms of free-agent signings who never play.

Rose no longer has the athleticism to overcome his height limitations, so his career should be done. The Knicks should release them both and find some NBDL talent or summer league players to take their spots.

Jared Jeffries and Mardy Collins are both brick layers, but at least Jeffries knows not to even try to shoot. Collins has no offensive ability, and rarely looks to pass, even though he plays point guard.

They should play no more than 10 minutes a game. Trade either of them, maybe for a second-round pick if possible.

Eddy Curry needs to get in shape and be removed from the game whenever he does not show effort on the boards. Send him to Tim Grover, who runs the famous A.T.T.A.C.K. training facility, to improve his quickness.

Not many teams would want to trade for Curry, but these teams might bite: Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Dallas, Minnesota, and Memphis. Curry could give the Thunder some rumble.

Lee needs to work harder on his defense and shooting. Every season he says he’s been working on his shot, but we never see any improvement.

If D’Antoni can get Nate Robinson to share the ball, the Knicks might have a new starting point guard.

Trades

These trades were verified in the ESPN trade machine

1. Eddy Curry and Quentin Richardson for Darko Milicic, Marko Jaric, and Javaris Crittenton

A deal that might make everyone happy. Darko can fit in better in New York than in Memphis, and might finally blossom into a good player. His blocks would be a welcome addition.

Marko and Javaris would bring more point-guard options to the Knicks, and help solve the Grizzlies’ glut at the position. Quentin should be a more attractive trade target for opposing teams since he has lost weight and has excelled in D’Antoni’s system before.

The Knicks reportedly are interested in trading Zach Randolph for Milicic and Jaric, but the above trade would be better.

2. Anthony Roberson for Marcin Gortat

The Knicks could use a backup center, and get rid of Jerome James.They were probably too quick to sign Roberson, too.

Jared Jeffries and Nate Robinson for J.J. Redick and Tony Battie

3. Zach Randolph, Mardy Collins, lottery protected draft pick for Marcus Camby and Jason Hart

Addition by subtraction. The Knicks would like the cap relief and the subtraction of a bad influence. The Clippers can use a low-post scorer now that Elton Brand has departed for greener pastures.

The Knicks would reunite with Camby, who helped them reach the finals in 1999. Hart is mostly in the deal to make the salaries work.

Zach Randolph for Ben Wallace

The Knicks really need someone who can play defense, cares about staying in shape, and can be considered a center. Not only does Wallace fit that criteria, but his contract also is a year shorter than Randolph’s. Cleveland could want another PF who can score, since they don’t have much there right now.

Randolph could play a Carlos Boozer-type role.

Photo by Greg Nelson/SI

4. Stephon Marbury for anything

Even if he is talented, motivated, and ready for a fresh start, everyone else on the team wants him gone. If they can get any sort of productivity out of him, that would be fantastic and they can disregard this idea.

With some serious luck, the Knicks can trot out a starting 5 of Duhon, Crawford, Chandler, Lee, and Camby with a bench of Gallinari, Milicic, Nate Robinson , Jared Jeffries, Marcin Gortat, Jaric, Ewing Jr. and Crittenton. They would have cap flexibility almost immediately, as well as a 2010 pick, when they can go after free agents.

I pencil that team in for 37 wins based on the potential of the young guns, the new coach, and the strength of the bench. They need a more effective point guard in order to really compete.

Knicks 2007-08 Preview: Reeling or Dealing?

Harris Beringer — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 02:59:06 +0000

Updated 9/6/08- This prediction was based on the assumption that players would perform how they did the previous season. There was no way to know that Marbury would miss the season and multiple players would play much worse (Richardson).

The Knicks will soon begin training camp in Charleston, SC, with what is expected to be an improved roster.

However, closer analysis shows that Knicks fans may be in for another disappointing season.

The team is still a turnover machine with no defensive stoppers. Stephon Marbury eats the PG minutes but can’t run the offense effectively.

Unfortunately, not many available players would fit well on the Knicks’ unbalanced roster.

Andrei Kirilenko of the Utah Jazz is asking for a trade, but he wants to play power forward and get shots down low. Sorry, but Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry will be clogging the lane in New York.

Ron Artest wants to be a franchise player, but that can’t happen with the Knicks as long as Isiah Thomas insists on making Curry his centerpiece.

Jared Jordan plays like John Stockton—the 43-year-old John Stockton, maybe, but that’s still not bad. His perceived defensive inadequacies could be fixed with shot blockers behind him, but the Knicks don’t have them…and probably couldn’t pry Jordan from the PG-challenged Clippers anyway.

And journeyman PG Carlos Arroyo? He could be a match, but maybe there’s a reason he hasn’t been able to keep a starting spot in an NBA lineup.

As it stands, then, the Knicks will enter training camp with a perplexing combination of talent, attitude problems, and poor decision-makers.

Starting Five

PG: Stephon Marbury

Marbury either knows his skills are diminishing and doesn’t care, or still thinks he’s a superstar.

Both are a problem for the Knicks.

“I’m working hard and sticking with my program that I’ve used the last seven or eight years,” Marbury said when asked about his offseason preparation.

Has Stephon noticed that his stats have declined the last seven or eight years? A look at baketball-reference.com reveals that more than just his fantasy stats have diminished. He had the lowest PER of his career at 15, well below his career average of 19. Chauncey Billups, by comparison, maintained a PER of over 21 even though he is five months older than Marbury.

Marbury admits that he’s played a lot of basketball and his body is wearing down, so why won’t he change his training regimen? Instead of working harder, he’s selling shoes, going to court, and embarrassing himself in front of the media.

SG: Jamal Crawford

Crawford will once again be a streaky player with absolutely no concept of shot selection. He’s the Knick most likely to score 40 points in any game…and then follow it with two points the next night.

The media claimed his defense improved under Larry Brown, but he still can’t be considered a good defender. He runs two plays: 1) dump inside to Curry, and 2) dribble around and launch a wild shot.

SF: Quentin Richardson

Richardson once again enters the season expected to be the Knicks’ long-range shooter.

He also once again will probably get hurt and shoot for a very low percentage.

If Richardson’s back holds up, the SF position could be significantly improved

PF: Zach Randolph

The newcomer is a “big man with a rare combination of power and agility,” according to the Knicks’ team page.

A 6’9″ power forward is hardly a big man.

If by power they mean “ability to rebound the ball,” the Knicks already have multiple “powerful players,” including David Lee, who averaged a double-double in his second season, and Randolph Morris, who averaged a double-double in the Summer League.

The Knicks must hope that Randolph’s defensive ineptitude stems from laziness rather than being too small or too slow. But with a leader like Marbury, the younger Knicks have no positive example to learn from.

Furthermore, if Randolph is such a stud, why did his old team finish with the first overall draft pick despite having the Rookie of the Year and a SF in Ime Udoka (released by Thomas last year) who has been compared to Bruce Bowen?

Fortunately, Randolph possesses an extraordinary offensive repetoire to go with his excessive usage rate, turnover rate, and miniscule assist rate.

C: Eddy Curry

Curry seemed to improve last year, but that was mostly an illusion.

His rebounding and scoring numbers rose because he played more minutes—despite his lack of conditioning, defense, or passing ability. His rebounding rate actually declined.

The offense revolved around him, so naturally he got more shots.

Even with the experience of being the primary scorer, though, Curry didn’t learn how to pass out of double- or triple-teams. It’s a mystery what training camp and practice are for. His turnover rate was a career high, and he possesses a legendary ratio of turnovers to assists, blocks, and steals combined.

Curry’s defensive style closely resembles that of any of the chairs that Yi Jianlian dominated before the NBA Draft. If he works on awareness and conditioning this year, maybe Isiah’s plan to make him the focus of the offense will work.

The Bench

Jared Jeffries’ only skill is “long arms.” He has not and will not improve. Look for him to get hurt or play poorly.

David Lee, meanwhile, should return from injury to resume his role as a fan favorite. Last season, Lee averaged 10.7 points and 10.4 rebounds on 60 percent field goal shooting. His performance at the free throw line improved dramatically in ’06-’07, and he’s been working on his midrange shot this summer.

If Lee gets enough playing time, he could be a star. Before you dismiss his stats as the result of playing on a lousy team, remember that the Knicks were at .500 when Lee went down. He also dominated in the Sophomore-Rookie game. Lee’s player win% of .931 overwhelms Curry’s player win% .338, just one indicator that Lee should get more of Curry’s minutes.

The rest of the Knicks roster features young players with scant chance of getting regular playing time, despite an undefeated performance in the Summer League.

Rookies Wilson Chandler and Demetris Nichols may be assigned to the NBDL, but a ride on the bench or release seem more likely. Randolph Morris should play backup center. Fred Jones and Dan Dickau can play the point, but at least one will probably be released. Since Isiah Thomas waived Matt Barnes and Ime Udoka in the last two seasons, respectively, his penchant for waiving promising players may continue.

Renaldo Balkman is an energy guy, and can be inserted into the lineup to embarrass the guys he replaces. Mardy Collins can foul hard, and has displayed a balanced game with allegedly solid defense. He doesn’t play enough minutes to give an accurate reading.

Firecracker Nate Robinson dominated the Summer League en route to an MVP award—but that performance was rumored to be a showcase of his talent, and he may have earned his ticket to a new team.

A reasonable prediction for the ’07-’08 Knicks is 41-41. In an improved Eastern Conference now boasting Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, that should be good for eighth place in the East.

If the team starts slow, Isiah Thomas should be fired and replaced with a coach who can maximize the team’s talent—and a GM who can do more than draft players.