Carmelo Anthony has not been the same player this season. Articles across the country have lauded him for an improved all-around game. Surely his stats are more balanced since his rebounding and assist numbers increased, but that does not mean he plays better basketball overall.

His rebound rate ranks among the top for small forwards, but the increase can be attributed to the departure of Marcus Camby, who previously snagged those boards. No one else on the team rebounds well, and someone has to get the ball.

His shooting percentages are at a career low, and his possessions result in turnovers at a far higher percentage than ever before. Melo apologists cite a sore elbow, but great players learn to deal with injuries.

For the stat geeks out there, Carmelo’s PER has fallen to 16 this season, after three straight seasons between 21.1 and 22.1. Can we really blame the elbow?

Here are the top 4 possibilities why Carmelo is missing shots and making more mistakes:

1. He’s hurt
   Usually when someone’s arm hurts, they can’t shoot or dribble as well. Solution: He is still making free throws, so he should try to limit himself to high percentage shots. Carmelo has never shown good shot selection, but this time he really should try.
2. He’s too fat
   He reportedly lost 9 pounds in the offseason, slimming down from 245 to 236. However, he does not look any thinner. Athletes often say they lost weight, packed on muscle, or are in the best shape of their lives. Usually lies. His NBA profile lists him at 230, but that was probably his rookie weight. This article mentions 228-230 is Melo’s ideal weight. He weighed 220 at Syracuse. Maybe his chef is too good. Solution: He may lose his personal chef, Daniel Young. Young cooked for Obama at the DNC, and may be moving to the White House.
3. He got a haircut
   Everyone knows unique hair helps you play better. Look at Ben Wallace. No one cares about his hair anymore, and he plays like an old man. Solution: Shave a nugget into his hair.

   

4. The Nuggets need a new shooting coach
   Does anyone remember JR Smith? This was supposed to be his breakout season. His assists and rebounds are at career highs (sound familiar?), but he can’t buy a bucket. Solution: Is Reggie Miller available?

Do you think Carmelo can recover and post his fourth straight excellent season?

• Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony
• Knicks 2008-09 Preview: Donnie Walsh Can Save New York Basketball
• Knicks 2007-08 Preview: Reeling or Dealing?
• Tayshaun Prince vs. Luol Deng
• Cavs 2008-09 Preview: Is Mo Williams an Upgrade?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Tayshaun vs. Deng

Tayshaun Durell Prince grew up in Compton, and moved on up, sorta, to Kentucky and now Detroit. This must have hardened him up, since he has a quite a reputation as a durable defensive specialist.  He parlayed this onto a spot on the US Olympic team, and won a gold medal. Clearly, Prince is a glue guy who would be a welcome addition to any other team, right?

A certain Chicago Bull might contest that idea. The Bulls’ starting small forward was once considered one of the top young players in the game, and was part of a proposed trade for Kobe Bryant. However, after one down year, he is now off the radar.  He too has an interesting background. Luol Deng is from Wow, Sudan (which sounds pretty exciting). He was overrated, and his defense is nothing special, right?

Well, maybe Tayshan and Luol are a better gauntlet pairing than you may think. Check out the vital stats first:

In 14 head to head games, each player’s team won 7. Deng, perhaps underrated defensively, has held Prince to 37% shooting. He has drawn two fouls per game from Prince, who normally only fouls about once a game. All evidence points to Deng being underrated, and Prince being supported by some reputation that he has never earned.

Who deserves more recognition?

• Ron Artest vs. Caron Butler
• Baron Davis vs. Chauncey Billups
• Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony
• Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James
• Dwyane Wade vs. Gilbert Arenas

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Ron vs. Caron

They’re both 28 years old, prone to missing games, spent two years in college, have been traded a couple of times, and are members of high-powered trios. Artest joins McGrady and Yao this season, while Caron continues to play with Arenas and Jamison.

They each also rank among the league leaders in steals, although Ron Artest is more heralded for his defense.

They each have a somewhat menacing appearance, with Ron sporting large muscles and words shaved in his head, and Caron showing off some ink of a skull on his arm.

These two players have much in common, but their names are not among the similarities.

Ron is short for Ronald, from Queensbridge, NY. He says he grew up in the streets and always follows that code of honor. No one, including fans, may disrespect him or his friends.

Caron is Mr. Butler’s middle name. James Butler, born in Wisconsin, went to high school in Maine and college in Connecticut, does not sound like a very dangerous sort of guy. Naturally, he went with Caron and got the aforementioned skull tattoo.

Background aside, who would you rather have on your team right now?

In 11 head to head games, Artest has held Butler to 37% shooting. Last season, Butler shot only 29% against Artest. Defense matters quite a bit.

Who would you rather have by your side?

• Tayshaun Prince vs. Luol Deng
• Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony
• Dwyane Wade vs. Gilbert Arenas
• Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James
• Baron Davis vs. Chauncey Billups

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

The Truth vs. Melo

In this battle we have the self-proclaimed “best player in the world” against the versatile young snitch-hater.

When Paul Pierce was interviewed by the Spanish newspaper Marca, he revealed that he thinks he is the best player in the world. He attributes this statement to confidence, not conceit.

He also said that LeBron is the most difficult player to defend, Magic Johnson is one of his idols, and his teammates are his favorite players.

In response to a question, he said that Gilbert Arenas is better than Jose Calderon because Calderon has room for improvement, but Arenas is already a superstar. Those years in Spanish class really paid off.

Carmelo has among the most egomaniac websites around. He enjoys photography and blogging, and recently was published by the NY Times. To be fair, many would be doing the same things if in his position.

Last year, Pierce and Anthony were voted All-NBA (3rd team). Their PER and scoring numbers over the past few seasons have been similar. Let’s see the argument for each:

To level the playing field a bit, consider that Pierce could not put up as great numbers as usual since he was on a team filled with all-stars. In addition, the Denver Nuggets played at one of the fastest paces, which allowed Carmelo to score more often and collect more rebounds.

Which all-star is more justified in his self-promotion?

• Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James
• Dwyane Wade vs. Gilbert Arenas
• Tayshaun Prince vs. Luol Deng
• Ron Artest vs. Caron Butler
• Baron Davis vs. Chauncey Billups

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Doberman vs. King James

Kobe Bryant and LeBron James routinely factor into the discussion for MVP candidates. Each year, they have among the highest scoring averages, PERs, Win Shares, and any other metric commonly used to determine the best basketball player.

Last year, LeBron flirted with a triple double for the season, but slowed down a bit as the season progressed. Even so, he still ended up with numbers that would often win the MVP. Unfortunately for him, many players had compelling arguments for the MVP award. The highest rated by many metrics were Kobe and LeBron.

Did MVP voters made a mistake?

The MVP just counts the regular season, so how do they compare in the postseason?

They have each carried their teams through the playoffs, but could not win a championship without an all-star sidekick.

In NBA Finals, each man faltered when confronted with stifling defense.  LeBron and his Cavs were swept in the 2007 NBA Finals by the Spurs, who had won four championships in nine years. Kobe and the Lakers could not handle the intense pressure applied by the Celtics in the 2008 NBA Finals.

If we just compare how each man’s team did against the Boston Celtics last year, LeBron has a definite edge. LeBron and the Cavs pushed the Celtics to 7 games.

Which Nike shoe salesman would you rather have on your team?

• Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony
• Cavs 2008-09 Preview: Is Mo Williams an Upgrade?
• Dwyane Wade vs. Gilbert Arenas
• Ron Artest vs. Caron Butler
• Tayshaun Prince vs. Luol Deng

The Cleveland Cavaliers made a bold push to improve the team and retain LeBron James in the future. In a three team deal with Oklahoma City and Milwaukee, the Cavs brought in Mo Williams and sent out Damon Jones and Joe Smith.

But is Mo Williams, who turns 26 this season, an actual upgrade or a misguided attempt to make LeBron happy?

Though he is not an excellent facilitator or defender, Mo Williams has become an efficient scorer, and has improved each year. He also has been good on the boards.

Mo Williams, a scoring point guard, adds about 2.5 wins above average to a team in 2400 minutes, while Damon Jones is about 2.5 wins below average in just 1300 minutes.

The remaining 1100 minutes that Mo Williams will take can come from any other less talented player, such as Devin Brown, who would be about two wins below average in that amount of time.

The loss of Joe Smith, an above average power forward, would create minutes for rookie J.J. Hickson, who should figure to be have a fairly successful rookie season, about one win below average.

Add everything together and you see that the team should win about six more games. The young players like Daniel Gibson should improve a bit and Sasha Pavlovic should recover from a dreadful season.

However, the team must hope that Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas don’t age five years overnight. LeBron James will also need to find a way to stay fresh after a long off-season playing for team U.S.A.

2008-2009 Cavaliers Prediction: 51 Wins.

• Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James
• Tayshaun Prince vs. Luol Deng
• Knicks 2008-09 Preview: Donnie Walsh Can Save New York Basketball
• Knicks 2007-08 Preview: Reeling or Dealing?
• Something’s Different About Melo

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Pookie vs. Agent Zero

Born just 11 days apart, a case can be made for each player.

Dwyane Wade carried the 2005-2006 Miami Heat to an NBA championship, but his frequent injuries and inefficient three point shot have held him back.

Gilbert Arenas, a prolific blogger and Halo player, also happens to put up great stats. He missed most of the 2007-2008 season with a knee injury, but has been durable for most of his other seasons.

Since half of Gilbert’s games played last season were basically a rehab assignment, we’ll use 2006-2007 stats to compare the two. In that season, Arenas was All-NBA 2nd team, Wade was All-NBA 3rd team. The previous year, the honors were reversed.

Wade: 27.4 PPG, 7.5 APG, 4.7 RPG, 2.1 SPG

Arenas: 28.4 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.6 RPG, 1.9 SPG

These numbers are certainly comparable. If you add in an argument about Wade’s higher FG%, you can counter with Gilbert’s better 3PT%. Wade assisted on a higher percentage of his possessions, but also turned the ball over far more.

Many of Wade’s teammates on the US Olympic team say he’s healthy and better than ever. But could he break down again? Arenas had a summer to recover from his latest injury. Will the upcoming season be a showcase of each star’s return to prominence?

Which charismatic superstar would you rather have on your team?

• Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony
• Ron Artest vs. Caron Butler
• Baron Davis vs. Chauncey Billups
• Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James
• Tayshaun Prince vs. Luol Deng

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Boom Dizzle vs. Mr. Big Shot

In this gauntlet matchup, we have the point guard who left his Warriors at the altar for the Clippers going against the PG who disappeared for the Pistons in the 2008 playoffs. That said, each floor general has had remarkable success over the past few years after spending years unable to capitalize on their talent.

Last year, each player put up all-star stats:

Based on the numbers NBA.com highlights, Baron Davis is a much better player.

However, Chauncey Billups excels in less-heralded stats such as True Shooting Percentage.

Plus, although Baron Davis racks up more assists per game, he also has many more possessions, and gets assists on a smaller percent of his possessions. So, which do you think is more important- getting an assist each time you have the ball, or having the ball more often because your team needs you to?

As a result of higher shooting percentages, lower turnover rate, and higher assist rate, Billups actually accumulated more Win Shares and Player Efficiency Rating. Unsure what that means? Check the Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ).

Who would you rather have on your team?

• Tayshaun Prince vs. Luol Deng
• Dwyane Wade vs. Gilbert Arenas
• Something’s Different About Melo
• Knicks 2007-08 Preview: Reeling or Dealing?
• Paul Pierce vs. Carmelo Anthony

Updated 9/4/08

This year, I have a few more fearless projections and suggestions—take that, Clyde Frazier—for fans and management, respectively.

Let’s start with the projections. Last year, my player projections were pretty accurate.

I was tough on all of the Knicks who ended up being terrible (see Richardson, Q.)—but did not anticipate how the coaching and injuries could help the team lose even more games than the 2006-2007 season.

This year, let’s start off with the win total—34. Now, how can the Knicks achieve that record?

Last year was filled with an unprecedented level of drama, with a coach spending the entire year on the hot seat, a sexual harassment scandal, an unhappy “star” point guard who mysteriously left the team to have surgery, trade rumors, and various in-team scuffles.

The Knicks used 31 different lineups last season, an unheard of count, unless you’re the 2005-2006 Knicks who used 42 different lineups.

This year, stability alone should bring the team back to its play of two years ago. Unfortunately, much of the Eastern Conference has improved.

Elton Brand brings a low-post presence to Philly. Toronto has a new center, and Indiana found a new point guard. Atlanta can look forward to improvement by the young guys, but losing Childress hurts more than people think. Even Charlotte might improve.

The Knicks, though, are unlikely to notice any improvement from their own players. Not a single Knick has improved while in the league, which might be a sign that the coaching staff was terrible. This year, Mike D’Antoni’s high-octane offensive approach should increase scoring and raise morale. If that translates to more wins, then great.

Now, can the Knicks win more than 34 games? That will take a real effort to trade the trash and find new roles for others.

Jerome James and Malik Rose have no good reason to take up a spot on the bench. Jerome is on par with Carl Pavano, in terms of free-agent signings who never play.

Rose no longer has the athleticism to overcome his height limitations, so his career should be done. The Knicks release them both and find some NBDL talent or summer league players to take their spots.

Jared Jeffries and Mardy Collins are both brick layers, but at least Jeffries knows not to even try to shoot. Collins has no offensive ability, and rarely looks to pass, even though he plays point guard.

They should play more than 10 minutes a game. Trade either of them, maybe for a second-round pick if possible.

Eddy Curry needs to get in shape and be removed from the game whenever he does not show effort on the boards. Send him to Tim Grover, who runs the famous A.T.T.A.C.K. training facility, to improve his quickness.

Not many teams would want to trade for Curry, but these teams might bite: Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Dallas, Minnesota, and Memphis. Curry could give the Thunder some rumble.

Lee needs to work harder on his defense and shooting. Every season he says he’s been working on his shot, but we never see any improvement.

If D’Antoni can get Nate Robinson to share the ball, the Knicks might have a new starting point guard.

Trades

These trades were verified in the ESPN trade machine

1. Eddy Curry and Quentin Richardson for Darko Milicic, Marko Jaric, and Javaris Crittenton

A deal that might make everyone happy. Darko can fit in better in New York than in Memphis, and might finally blossom into a good player. His blocks would be a welcome addition.

Marko and Javaris would bring more point-guard options to the Knicks, and help solve the Grizzlies’ glut at the position. Quentin should be a more attractive trade target for opposing teams since he has lost weight and has excelled in D’Antoni’s system before.

The Knicks reportedly are interested in trading Zach Randolph for Milicic and Jaric, but the above trade would be better.

2. Anthony Roberson for Marcin Gortat

The Knicks could use a backup center, and get rid of Jerome James.They were probably too quick to sign Roberson, too.

or

Jared Jeffries and Nate Robinson for J.J. Redick and Tony Battie

3. Zach Randolph, Mardy Collins, lottery protected draft pick for Marcus Camby and Jason Hart

Addition by subtraction. The Knicks would like the cap relief and the subtraction of a bad influence. The Clippers can use a low-post scorer now that Elton Brand has departed for greener pastures.

The Knicks would reunite with Camby, who helped them reach the finals in 1999. Hart is mostly in the deal to make the salaries work.

or

Zach Randolph for Ben Wallace

The Knicks really need someone who can play defense, cares about staying in shape, and can be considered a center. Not only does Wallace fit that criteria, but his contract also is a year shorter than Randolph’s. Cleveland could want another PF who can score, since they don’t have much there right now.

Randolph could play a Carlos Boozer-type role.

Photo by Greg Nelson/SI

4. Stephon Marbury for anything

Even if he is talented, motivated, and ready for a fresh start, everyone else on the team wants him gone. If they can get any sort of productivity out of him, that would be fantastic and they can disregard this idea.

With some serious luck, the Knicks can trot out a starting 5 of Duhon, Crawford, Chandler, Lee, and Camby with a bench of Gallinari, Milicic, Nate Robinson, Jared Jeffries, Marcin Gortat, Jaric, Ewing Jr. and Crittenton. They would have cap flexibility almost immediately, as well as a 2010 pick, when they can go after free agents.

I pencil that team in for 37 wins based on the potential of the young guns, the new coach, and the strength of the bench. They need a more effective point guard in order to really compete.

• Knicks 2007-08 Preview: Reeling or Dealing?
• The Walt “Clyde” Frazier Dictionary
• Ron Artest vs. Caron Butler
• Cavs 2008-09 Preview: Is Mo Williams an Upgrade?
• Dwyane Wade vs. Gilbert Arenas

Eddy Curry, a 6′11, 300+ pound center for the New York Knicks, reportedly wanted to be a gymnast when he was younger.

However, when he realized he could sucker an NBA team into paying him way too much money, he gave up his first love. Plus, the basketball looked tasty. Check out the comic.

• Knicks 2008-09 Preview: Donnie Walsh Can Save New York Basketball
• Knicks 2007-08 Preview: Reeling or Dealing?
• The Walt “Clyde” Frazier Dictionary
• Tayshaun Prince vs. Luol Deng
• Something’s Different About Melo