Cavs 2008-09 Preview: Is Mo Williams an Upgrade?
The Cleveland Cavaliers made a bold push to improve the team and retain LeBron James in the future. In a three team deal with Oklahoma City and Milwaukee, the Cavs brought in Mo Williams and sent out Damon Jones and Joe Smith.
But is Mo Williams, who turns 26 this season, an actual upgrade or a misguided attempt to make LeBron happy?
Though he is not an excellent facilitator or defender, Mo Williams has become an efficient scorer, and has improved each year. He also has been good on the boards.
Mo Williams, a scoring point guard, adds about 2.5 wins above average to a team in 2400 minutes, while Damon Jones is about 2.5 wins below average in just 1300 minutes.
The remaining 1100 minutes that Mo Williams will take can come from any other less talented player, such as Devin Brown, who would be about two wins below average in that amount of time.
The loss of Joe Smith, an above average power forward, would create minutes for rookie J.J. Hickson, who should figure to be have a fairly successful rookie season, about one win below average.
Add everything together and you see that the team should win about six more games. The young players like Daniel Gibson should improve a bit and Sasha Pavlovic should recover from a dreadful season.
However, the team must hope that Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas don’t age five years overnight. LeBron James will also need to find a way to stay fresh after a long off-season playing for team U.S.A.
2008-2009 Cavaliers Prediction: 51 Wins.
August 15, 2008 at 4:28 pm#
frankly, i think 51 wins is low. i can see 6 more wins, however you didnt take into account the fact that the cavs had an abnormally low win total last season due to a ton of injuries (more than what is typical), the huge mid-season trade and the holdouts of sasha and AV. so although they had 45 wins last year, they were really about a 50 win team. i would say this season they should reach at least 55 wins.
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August 15th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
The Cavs were actually projected to win just 40 games last year based on points scored and point allowed.
However, they should have won 45 games based on my projections. This year I have them at 51, so I figure they’re 6 games better. Sasha was terrible last year. If he returns to his previous levels, the team can win maybe 2 more games.
I predicted a slight rise in AV’s numbers, but that does not have a significant effect on the win total.
Considering the Cavs’ top 3 players all played the whole season, I’d say they were not decimated by injuries.
I stand by 51 wins until I hear a really compelling reason why they should be much better or worse (like if LeBron decides to stay in China).
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August 15, 2008 at 4:43 pm#
Your statement about the Cavs not being decimated by injuries last year could only be made if you are clueless….which you obviously must then be.
Cavs win 55 this year….and bring home the gold in June.
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August 15th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
You’re obviously a Cavs fan. Who are the Cavs 3 best players? How many games did they miss last year?
LeBron: 7
Zydrunas: 9
Drew Gooden + Joe Smith (his replacement when traded): 4
Damon Jones played most the season.
Delonte West wasn’t hurt.
Yes, the team used 22 players, which is astronomical, but some of that was due to a trade. In addition, their best players were rarely hurt, so that is a huge help.
Houston had Yao injured, Sacramento had Bibby, Martin, Artest all injured for prolonged stretches. That’s what I consider decimated by injuries.
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August 16, 2008 at 10:35 pm#
the FACT is, mr. beringer, that *no other* playoff team had as many injuries OR starting line-ups as the cavs last year so, by definition they overcame injuries. so, if one goes by that, 5 to 6 wins (considering every game LBJ plays in makes the cavs favored over 90% of the teams in the league, the seven games he missed indeed could’ve pushed last years team in to the 50 win category) with even a few less games missed by valuable contributors is easy to project.
i also believe that no team had ever made the play-offs with more different players suiting up than the cavs did last year.
clearly any analysis you do of the cavs must be taken with a grain of salt…
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August 16th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
I agree, the team had injuries, but they were not severe. If the Cavs can be as healthy this year as the Pistons or Jazz last year, that could add a few more wins to the total. However, keep in mind that based on their points scored and points allowed last season, they should have been 40-42.
Your claim that the Cavs win 90% of the games LeBron starts is laughable. I remember at one point last year they were 25-20 with LeBron and 0-6 without him. Based on stats, they would probably win 4 more games if he played 7 more.
Your “fact” that no other playoff team had as many injuries as the Cavs did is incorrect.
Wizards: Arenas only started 8 games.
Rockets: Yao started 55, McGrady started 62. 21 different players suited up, without a major trade.
The Cavs had 21 different starting lineups last year, but that is not always due to injury. The Knicks had 42 different starting lineups in 2005-2006. Much of that is coach’s decision.
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August 18, 2008 at 4:08 am#
do you see anyone else that the cavs could go get to make this team better
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August 18th, 2008 at 10:21 am
That’s a good question. The Cavs’ most tradable assets are the expiring contracts of Eric Snow, Wally Szczerbiak, and Anderson Varejao. They also have to decide what to do with Delonte West. They may be able to trade those guys for somewhat better players, but that would be taking on a lot of salary.
They could also try to sign someone who might be waived, such as Stephon Marbury. He could play a role like Sam Cassell did last year.
Their only desirable young players are fairly untouchable. Hickson is their PF, so they can’t move him unless they get a good power forward back. That wouldn’t really make sense. They can’t really move Gibson because he’s a top three point threat, and may break out in his third season.
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August 18, 2008 at 7:25 pm#
Don’t bother reasoning with Cavs fans, Harris. They never listen to reason and consider Lebron James Jesus Christ in a basketball form. Luckily you have some educated Cavs fans commenting. Most Cavs fans I come across only type with Caps Lock on and swear every two words. I think your research is interesting and you make a good prediction. 51 wins sounds accurate for a team that finally adds a facilitator in a position that they have been week in for years. (Delonte is NOT a starter)
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August 18th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Thanks Dominic. I always like to discuss sports, so I’ll try to counter almost any argument.
Delonte West is still probably better than most of their other options for shooting guard, so he could be a starter for their team. He played much better last year after joining the Cavs.
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August 18, 2008 at 9:42 pm#
Sorry I should’ve made my meanings more clear. He is not a starting PG, at the most important position he is not an adequate starter for any contender. At SG he is a good option for the Cavs. Better than many SGs they have had before. One thing that has always annoyed me is when people consider Daniel Gibson as a PG. The only thing that makes him a PG is his size. He is a Shooting guard (emphasis on Shooting) in every respect except height. So they may need to find a better backup at PG if they don’t keep Delonte
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August 18th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
I think since LeBron is so good at creating his own shot and distributing, the team doesn’t need to worry about a PG too much. LeBron plays nearly the whole game every game, and does it all. If they start Delonte, LeBron, and Mo, they’ll have three good passers in the game at once, kind of like the old Kings teams with Webber, Divac, Brad Miller, Bibby.
It’s true, Daniel Gibson so far has not acted like anything other than an undersized three point specialist.
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August 21st, 2008 at 12:57 pm
I like how you say he is an undersized 3 point specialist but then make this comment, “They can’t really move Gibson because he’s a top three point threat.” Hey Belichick, get your story straight.
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August 21st, 2008 at 1:30 pm
The comments are not contradictory. He can be an undersized three point specialist and still be important to the team. He’s not a real backup point guard, but his role is to spread the defense.
August 19, 2008 at 9:13 am#
Every time I hear the statement that LeBron is so good that he does not NEED a point guard to play floor general, I die a little bit inside. I completely agree that he has been the de facto point forward on this team. This team though often relies to its detriment on his ability to create his own shot and shots for others. I tend to agree with Charles Barkley that making your absolute best scoring option your best method of ball distribution is madness. Why is this guy tasked with setting up shots for lesser players? If LeBron was taken off the ball, he would destroy the defense far worse than he already does. I just don’t see teams being able to triple team a player that big and fast that doesn’t have the ball. If Mo Williams has any true point guard skills and allows LeBron to move freely in this “offense” great things will happen for the Cavs.
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August 19th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Just to be clear, I didn’t say they don’t need a point guard, just that they don’t need to worry about it too much. It would be great if the Cavs had a lineup with other good passers who could get the ball to LeBron, but since LeBron is a triple threat, it makes sense for the offense to revolve around him. If he doesn’t have a good shot available, he can pass it out and the offense can find another way.
Remember, Jordan played with point guards who could score, and that worked out pretty well for him.
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August 21st, 2008 at 1:04 pm
He also had Scottie Pippen who was amazing (1 of the 50 greatest players) and LeBron doesn’t quite have the player yet. Ron Harper was good, but that’s when the game was at a different level and pace. Let’s face it, the game has changed since then and you have to be almost as good as LeBron to be able to do anything.
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August 21st, 2008 at 1:28 pm
The last few NBA champions have had point guards with assist rates similar to that of Mo Williams.
August 19, 2008 at 10:06 am#
Great comments! I see what you are saying in that it’s not a worry per se, but it is sub-optimal. It makes sense to run the offense through LeBron because he’s so much better at it than the next best option on the Cavs. This setup will work in the regular season and can take you deep into the playoffs, but I don’t think it is the stuff of championship teams. The defenses are too good to let one guy beat them, and when that one guy is not only responsible for scoring but also distributing, you have a sweep on your hands.
The Jordan analogy is an interesting one. Right now, LeBron is asked to be Scottie Pippen without a Michael Jordan to set up. Once Jordan retired for the first time, Pippen had to not only initiate the offense, but be the top scorer thus the team struggled. When your top scorer is also your top distributer, the team’s offense is inherently vulnerable to defenses like the Celtics employed that dedicated 3 players to LeBron’s side of the floor. I don’t think that would be the case if LeBron could play off the ball. Take care!
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August 20th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
That’s interesting, I never thought of LeBron as Scottie Pippen. I suppose the similarity is in their position and versatility. Since LeBron is better than Pippen and the focal point of his offense, there isn’t a good comparison for him.
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August 20, 2008 at 11:34 pm#
There is NO way the Cavaliers would sign Stephon Marbury.
Remember him and LeBron had their little shoe argument when Starbury bashed The King about being owned by Nike?
LeBron was once asked about the Cavaliers signing/trading for Marbury, and said he couldn’t have a guy of that character on his team.
Not trying to bash you in any way, just saying that Marbury is not an option for the Cavs.
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August 21st, 2008 at 8:31 am
I was not aware of that argument, but there are plenty of sports players who were hated but “kissed and made up.” If Marbury was desperate, I could see him apologizing.
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August 21, 2008 at 1:06 pm#
How many games did we win with lebron out the line up? Uh, 1 i think, so with a healthy lebron, ALL SEASON, we should win at least 11 more games than last year, taking the 45 to 56 and with Z staying healthy the way he has been and working harder (especially on D and boards) I say at least one more, 57. What’s your ‘unbiased’ take on that??? And yes i said unbiased cuz i notice you hate on our Cavs a lot and I’m not sure if that’s because you’re upset your team (could be the wiz, the pacers, the raptors, who cares) always gets beat by them or you didn’t get hugged enough, but I just had to get your oh so great comments on that one.
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August 21st, 2008 at 1:26 pm
LeBron missed 7 games. With the winning percentage the Cavs have with him in the lineup, they would win 4 of those 7. I don’t know how you’re so sure he won’t miss any games this year.
Big Z has been staying healthy, and players his age don’t generally improve, so I don’t see how you expect him to add more wins next year.
That is a completely unbiased, fact-based comment right there. Enjoy.
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August 21, 2008 at 1:07 pm#
The way LeBron is playing in the Olympics bodes well for the new season. Unless he forgets to revert back to NBA rules of play. I love watching these games – maybe a melding of FIBA and NBA rules would be more exciting? (This is a question – from an unabashed Cavs devotee)
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August 27th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
FIBA rules are changing to be more NBA-like. They are adding the no-charge circle, moving back the three point line, and switching from a trapezoid to a rectangle lane.
That might make things more exciting.
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August 21, 2008 at 1:59 pm#
Good point, hadn’t thought of that. I’m from Ohio, I really don’t know if I’d like Marbury no matter what his and LeBron’s relationship was…
By the way, I really like how you respond to EVERY comment. Appreciate it!
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August 21st, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Sure, it’s fun, and I always try to be right…
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August 21, 2008 at 5:48 pm#
Harris,
You made some good points when analyzing the Cavaliers and their out-look for the up-coming season. However, I have to disagree with you. I know that from a fan’s stand-point, you only have so-much to go on, and the number one thing is statistics. However, stats don’t tell the entire story:
The stats didn’t tell how Larry Hughes refused to play the point; the stats didn’t tell how Damon and Larry were distractions for the team with their public comments on trades,winning,etc.
Yes, the Cavaliers had 21 line-ups… and their top-two players only missed 16 combined. However, the Cavaliers were short-handed with Anderson’s injuries, and the fact that he didn’t make it to camp on-time, and when he did sign, he was behind everyone else, and their were chemistry issues. Same things can be said about Pavlovic. Marshall was injured; Snow was injured… they were contributors the year before. After the trade, Delonte and Wally took awhile to come-around…Wally never did get his shooting-touch back. Sasha and Gibson remained injured, while Devin quietly had issues with Mike Brown. Wallace was thrust into the line-up with Joe and Zydrunas… 3 of the previous year’s starters were injured or gone. The Cavaliers had to make chemistry on-the-fly… not the easiest of things when playing against the best in the world.
Delonte wont be starting this year unless Wally is traded. And, even if Wally is traded, there is a decent chance that Sasha will start… it will at-least be a competition. The Cavaliers will be making another trade before the season begins… there are two deals on the table right now… but the Cavs front-office has to decide what direction it wants to go before making a move – but a move will be made.
The Cavaliers, as currently constructed will win 50-57 games. This accounts for minor injuries (under 6 games), and the process of figuring-out the best line-ups.
After the Cavaliers make their deal, depending on what they do, they will either be a 53-59 win team, or a 55-62 win team.
Good posts BTW!
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August 21st, 2008 at 6:46 pm
My statistical analysis of the team is for the players who are currently on the team, so Larry Hughes and Damon Jones are not factored in.
For Sasha, I factored in a likely return to 2006-2007 numbers.
What deal can the Cavs make that would help their team?
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August 30, 2008 at 10:04 pm#
Bill made some good points. I never heard of the discontent spread by Hughes and Jones but you seeem like a well educated fan hopefully the Cavaliers won’t stop Pistons hopes this year :)
Harris, I think you should do previews and predictions of every team this year. Or at least the playoff contenders. Your knoledge of statistics is impressive and judging on this Cavs prediction I think they’ll be pretty accurate. What do you think?
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August 30th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
The season starts in 8 weeks. If I did two previews a week I could have every predicted playoff team, but some of those teams wouldn’t make the playoffs and I’d look like an idiot.
Someone emailed me wishing to write about the Suns, so we’ll see how that would work out. It’s very time consuming to analyze every team, including their coach, roster, injuries, and more. I can’t say that I religiously follow every team in the NBA either, so writing about the Knicks, Nets, and Mavericks is easiest. I aim to write once or twice a week, and it’s difficult to write any more frequently since I work 9-5.
I’d like to run an analysis on a team and see how close I would have been with predicting last season’s record.
Lastly, tell all your friends, because traffic is a great motivator.
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September 14, 2008 at 8:46 am#
Your site has won a Blog of the Day Award (BOTDA)
Award Code
Your award will go live sometime on Sunday September 14, 2008
Thank you,
Bill Austin
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